Can Population Management be Mainstreamed in the Philippine Development Agenda?

Code:    09-091
Date:    11/15/2009 - 09/30/2010

Objective and Strategy

The study aims to determine the impact of the mainstream policy variables such as investment in health, education, and women on the fertility rate using household data.

In particular, the research seeks to:

1.   Quantify the following causal questions:

     a.  What are the effects of investment in health on the fertility rate?

     b. What are the effects of investment in education on the fertility rate?

     c. What are the effects of labor force participation of women on the fertility rate?

2.    Quantify the effects of the 1st and 2nd demographic dividend, through simulations, on economic/income growth and poverty reduction;

3.    Determine the effects of the current global economic crisis (creating vulnerability on the household) on fertility rate;

4.    Determine the effects of the environmental disaster due to the recent typhoons on the long run fertility rate particularly in the areas badly hit by the disaster;

5.    Estimate and recommend the population growth and total fertility rate targets for the period 2015 to 2025 that will speed up the demographic transition.


  a research report and  two round-table discussions

How this project contributes to the goal of PCPD

This commissioned research aims to produce policy recommendations that will complement direct government initiative in lowering the fertility rate, which remains a challenge given the current political climate. The study will further pinpoint which of the three factors  (women’s participation on the labor force, decreasing child mortality through investments in health, and improvement in education, particularly of women) has the optimal effect in reducing fertility rate for a given amount of investment. By looking at the environment variable as it relates to fertility rate, the study provides a  new  angle to the analysis of fertility. Finally, the research will recommend population growth and fertility targets for 2015 to 2025, based on empirical work.